TREB’s July Numbers Are Out – And It’s Almost What You’d Expect.
Toronto, Aug 17, 2018
By Andrew Ipekian
As 2018 progresses, we in the industry (and our clients) are scouring TREB’s monthly numbers release to see what can be read in the housing tea leaves.
In terms of prognostication, there was nothing that TREB put out yesterday in the overall 416 numbers that are going to make us look twice, as the realities of summer realty in Toronto kick in. That is to say, in the detached/townhome segment, listings are down, Days on Market (DoM) is up and the dearth of supply is the only thing supporting prices (which were up slightly over a terrible 2017). On the condo side, the split market seems to be still in full force with prices up and good product selling quickly, especially near the Waterfront.
In the 905, the extra supply of new builds combined with the annual migration to Muskoka/Haliburton (or maybe just dealing with kids around the house ALL DAY) has kept prices down and the pace pretty sleepy.
But a bit of digging into the depths of the 27 pages of data can reveal a couple interesting insights that may help guide us through until after Labour Day when the market typically takes off on steroids.
- If we look at condos in different parts of the 416, we see some discrepancies:
- In West, condos are in general selling below list and hanging around longer. This might suggest that prices are set a little high, and there isn’t enough traffic around to support multiple bids.
- In Central, units are selling 25% quicker and at around listing, which either means that realtors are pricing them correctly or enough people are bidding to support the asking price. My opinion is that’s it’s more the latter, but in any case, it shows that July was not an optimal time to buy a Waterfront condo, perhaps.
- In East, it’s a flip, with units selling as quickly as downtown, but on average for less than asking. Overconfident sellers? Motivated sellers? Whichever it is, it was the best place to shop for condos in July 2018.
2. In detached homes, a look at the correlation between sale price/list price and DoM reveals, again a disparity across the city, but the opposite to the condo market:
- In Central, sellers struggled to get their asking and longer DoM showed it, whereas
- In West, prices were closer to ask and the DoM lessened accordingly, and
- In East, we see this carried through with sellers getting what they wanted and getting it quickly – on average only a few weeks.
So, in short, while it’s tough to generalize about an entire market from a one-month snippet of data, I know I’ll be having coffee with my clients who are thinking about being active in the market the rest of this summer and telling them:
- If you’re buying a waterfront condo, maybe hold off until the winter if you can – they just show so well in July.
- If you’re looking for a detached home, let’s start thinking about neighbourhoods where the data suggest that listers are perhaps a bit more motivated to take an offer, and
- If you want to list your place, do some fixing up this month and wait until the masses return in the middle of September.
To see the original TREB data for July 2018 click here
Andrew Ipekian is principal Broker of The Andrew Ipekian Real Estate Group. Keller Williams Referred Urban Realty. He can be reached at 416-572-1016. Not intended to solicit clients already under contract.
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